Open Model Project

Ranked Choice Voting and the NYC Mayoral Race

January 18, 2021

We asked you to vote on what race you wanted next and it wasn't even close. The New York Democratic mayoral primary, set for June 22, is our next stop. 

With incumbent Bill de Blasio term limited, a huge and growing field of would-be successors are lining up, most prominently 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang. Complicating NYC's already byzantine electoral landscape is the first-even rollout of ranked choice voting, where voters get to pick their 1st through 5th choice candidates, who are then sorted through rounds of instant runoffs until someone in the crowded field scrapes together a majority. 

How do you campaign in this kind of race? How do you poll it? How do you even begin to model and forecast it? 

To help us get a handle on things, we've brought in ranked choice voting expert Paul Butler, creator of

Follow along with our interactive polls and forecasts at Follow us on Twitter at @OpenModelProj

If you'd like to see more independent forecasting and unbiased polling in your world, please consider supporting us on Patreon at

Big thanks to our latest (truth be told, also our first) patron Zachary Cramer, who as a "Pollster" level supporter will be enjoying early access to our in-house polling, VIP access to our Discord server, and other behind-the-scenes goodies.

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